Census and other data collected by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development shows Juneau is an aging community and it’s population is likely to steadily decline over the next 20 years.
The City and Borough of Juneau Assembly’s Committee of the Whole Monday learned about population and employment trends in Southeast Alaska from demographer Elisabeth Goodman and economist Mali Abrahamson of the Department of Labor.
Goodman said the Anchorage/Mat-Su area is booming in population and employment — a trend that will steadily grow over the next 20 years.
Southeast, she said, had its growth spurt in the 1970s through the 1990s, but has leveled off. She said population changes happen due to births, deaths and migration. Goodman said death trends are fairly predictable and growth in births can add some unanticipated increases, however the bulk of change occurs with migration.
Goodman discussed fertility rates among the declining population regions.
“As far as the Southeast goes, low fertility rates are due to the higher ages of the population and slowly increasing to retirement ages,” she said.
Goodman said none of the boroughs in Southeast saw a net increase in migration last year, and only four saw an increase in population — Juneau one of them by less than half a percent.
Population demographics changed a little with the census. In 2000, 74.8 percent of the state’s population was white, while in 2010 that number slid to 69.7 percent, as minority populations increased.
Goodman also showed two pyramid structure graphs, one of Juneau in 2000 that had more of a pyramid shape, one in 2010 with a rectangular shape.
“What you can tell from these two different pyramids is the population is aging,” Goodman said.
She explained that as it becomes more rectangular you will see an older population ready for replacement levels. She said that because of the 2.1 percent fertility rate, Juneau does have replacement levels.
Meanwhile, in the economic sector Abrahamson showed a graph of changes in salary and employment and it showed a lot of variability and no specific trend across all industries.
In 2010 Juneau saw an 0.4 percent increase in employment from the prior year — which is when Juneau was hit the hardest with the recession. In 2009, there was a 2.2 percent decrease. Abrahamson said she hopes she will be able to come back and adjust 2011’s number, but it’s forecasted to be a 1.1 percent decrease this year, although she said third quarter is improving.
Abrahamson said of more than 700 jobs lost in Southeast in 2009, 650 came out of Juneau.
Most of the losses came from the trade/transportation/utility sector, but high losses were also in retail and construction.
Mayor Bruce Botelho asked if there was specific transportation data and wondered if those losses came due to a decline in the tourism industry.
Abrahamson said it’s possible, since transportation and leisure/hospitality can overlap. She also pointed out that each job loss isn’t one full-time job, part-time and seasonal are counted. She said there also was a decrease in the general public transportation as well.
Abrahamson said that Juneau’s recovery in 2010 happened because of professional services — mostly medical — and because of Kensington Mine.
Deputy Mayor Merrill Sanford said he asked for this presentation because of the declining trend in Juneau and Southeast. He said the city government can either sit by and do nothing or can work at reversing the trend.
“If we have enough individual little businesses that come in, they can do that for us,” he said.
Assemblyman Bob Doll questioned contradicting data. In part of the packet from the department, it shows Southeast gained 3,000 jobs, but lost population. Doll said it didn’t make sense since the timber industry lost jobs.
Botelho suggested that an overall increase in the tourism industry is the reason for that discrepancy. He said that because each job is counted — not necessarily full-time — that could account for the shift.
Abrahamson said there can be developments in the community that can cause that kind of discrepancy.
The COW also heard a report about after school programs, however, much of that information was discussed after press time.
• Contact reporter Sarah Day at 523-2279 or at sarah.day@juneauempire.com.
Comments (39)
Add commentIts not so much that the
Its not so much that the population is aging, its that the prices are so rediculously high that the young people have no choice but to leave. Its aging by attrition.
add more
Well there is going to be 6(six) more juneau residence leaving this fair town.
Reason real lack of AFFORDABLE housing and to many druggies.
The local mantra of always trying to get work is a joke,pay scales are notoriously lower than ones capabilities to make enough to have housing. That is without using the get pregnat scam,and get housing through the nanny state program.
Go figure.
Myself i am not to worried about it as i have lived in juneau many years and i will see a lot of this yo-yo community loss into continuing times.
why not move
It is understandable to see why people are leaving Juneau. A state worker making 3310.00 per month gross takes home around 2400 net then take 1000/1200 out for rent and 300/500 out for childcare leaves you with 900/700 a month for car payment , gas, heating, insurance ,food and if any medical costs . Where in
Wasilla the same state worker making the same per month has a cost of 750-800 for rent in the same size apartment and childcare it about 100 cheaper per month? So why not take the same type of state job up there. Why would you want to stay in Juneau.
Pull your head out, Bruce
"Mayor Bruce Botelho asked... if those losses came due to a decline in the tourism industry."
Pull your head out, Bruce - and Assembly members... perhaps if y'all made some effort to provide amenities to local residents, instead of taxing us to death and spending all the money on tourism, folks might want to live here.
Taxes
Yeah, we're just taxed to DEATH with our lower-than-average sales tax, zero income tax, and low property taxes.
Get a grip. We're losing population because this is a liberal oasis in a conservative state. Why do you think most people seem to move to Portland or Seattle or EUGENE? Because they want Juneau, but bigger (and with marginally nicer weather).
But this isn't a bad thing. Southeast Alaska would suck if it were urban.
Nicer weather would be great,
Nicer weather would be great, but Juneau is the best place to raise kids.
Tier IV
Juneau has a problem due to tier 4 status in state government. Nobody wants to stick around for long and who can blame them. The state kicks state workers in the teeth.
Agencies are supervised by tier 1 and 2 workers and their workers are young people that stick around for a year or two to gain experience and move out. If we want young people to stay in Juneau we have to choose Juneau for life we need to put our efforts into improving the long term job status.
I agree with Kevin Costner. Bigger is not necessarily better. However, I think that we should be working toward better jobs. We used to have good state jobs.
lots of reasons
There are probably lots of reasons or explanations for the data. It is very, very doubtful that high taxes and drug problems are among them. High cost of living probably is one of them, but let's also acknowledge that lots of people simply leave in search of better climes.
Juneau's leaders ought to focus on diversifying our economy and attracting new industries, especially technological ones, i.e., those industries that young college graduates are vying to tap into. We have plenty of gigs for the old farts in town (state and federal employment, mining, to name some, and disclosure -- I'm increasingly getting closer to old [filtered word] status). I know someone that just came back from some IT training in the boonies of Utah. The training was there b/c that pathetic town had lured the software development company that created the product the folks were getting trained for. Juneau should enter that game or ones like it.
f-a-r-t
the word f-a-r-t gets filtered but farts does not?
Nether does
Stupid.
re: taxes
I s'pose y'all have a point... we're not really overly taxed. My point, tho, is that the local gov't doesn't seem nearly as interested in providing services / amenities to local residents as they are to providing same to tourists. They never seem to miss a chance to nickel & dime us, but what do we get for it? Another overpriced school & swimming pool? Some fancy cobblestoned sidewalks downtown? Another seawalk? A pocket park? A bronze whale?
Hmmm... has anyone noticed when driving near the federal building there's no street lights lit anymore? I've almost run over folks crossing the street there at night... they must've spent the money meant to pay for electricity on more crap for the tourists.
cost of living high
It is hard to get started in Juneau. Pretty much have to work two jobs or one that has a lot of overtime. Anything the city can do get more housing built and to support state employee contract negotiations would help.
Sometimes the correct answer
Sometimes the correct answer is the most obvious, Juneau sucks for young people and there is no future here for them here. I find it interesting that Juneau started to suck about the same time atv ridding was outlawed and getsz suckier every year. Since then atv. Ridding has bee n replaced by oxtcontin and heroine. Ok, now let's hear someone say that juneau does not need a placde to ride and the kids are fine, come on, let's hear it before their all gone.
This town is expensive.
This town is expensive. Very. Regardless of low taxes and no income tax this is by far the most expensive place I have ever lived. (nothing compared to the bush towns of up north)
Rent is as much as a full blown mortgage and food is just ridiculous. But that's the price of bringing food here. As with everything else. Stores need to make a profit, they triple the cost of an item wholesale and then have to add on shipping, (very common).
This town needs more places to rent, not low income, just more so the current landlords won't skyrocket the price. It's not property tax, that excuse is old, it's just so expensive living here people make money where they can.
And of course we need more development here, the people that hope to keep this town thriving but the same don't realize that will not happen.
More tourist jobs will help pump money into the city yes but if the town can't support it's citizens it's only circulating money to the "rich".
Time for the mayor to realize he's dumping too much money for not enough gain.
I agree hanklive. The amount
I agree hanklive. The amount of land needed for juneau's riders isn't much.
I ride my sled on Douglas and from dan muller you can ride most of the ridges there and even get to eaglecrest. FAR away from the no ride zone btw before someone try's and attacks me. I also hunt the exact same area and the "impact" of us riders is nothing compared to what people are saying it is. Yes once in a while a trail will get mucked up because spots lose more snow then others but it's not destroyed wilderness. Do the vermin birds deer and bear still inhabit those areas? Yes, I feel bad for occasional shrub that gets whacked but it's not destroying the woods.
Actually it's Sad a friend of
Actually it's Sad a friend of mine chose a job in ketchikan over juneau because the riding down there. The club there also isn't an elitist group of a&$;@.
And there's people there that are trying to solve the economic problem by developing like the article in the paper yesterday about Ward cove being bid on.
I won't support a move of Capitol but we won't have an option in another decade or two if were lucky.
Incorrect.
The impact of ATVs on the wilderness is actually quite profound, especially since you guys can't seem to stay on the designated trails. ATVers are so INCREDIBLY selfish--a hiker can co-exist on a trail with a berry picker, biker, dog-walker, and most anyone else. But not ATVers. They have to hog the entire trail with their commotion and plumes of exhaust (which wouldn't be SO bad if they were all four-stroke engines, but they're not).
Besides tearing up the terrain, the noise disrupts animal behavior for miles (nesting, mating, feeding, etc.), the exhaust and other run-off from the machines gets into the ground, plants, and ultimately the organisms that eat those plants, and I know this isn't the realm of ATVers exclusively, but the people riding them have very little respect for the wilderness and litter accordingly.
Also, ATV restrictions have absolutely nothing to do with why people are leaving the city.
How did this become about ATVs?
So the theory is this. Our young people are moving to Seattle, Portland, and Eugene because there aren't enough places to ride ATVs in Juneau.
That makes sense.
I am not against the city finding good places to ride but riding ATVs has very little to do with most people leaving. I suspect hanklive is internalizing this discussion because riding ATVs is the center of his world. Most kids from Juneau could care less about riding because they didn't grow up with it.
Sometimes young people leave the town they grew up in because they want something different. We can't keep them all here and I don't think we should even try. It isn't a shame if one of Juneau's young moves south. What we should do is maintain and improve the economy so that those that want to stay can stay and have a good life.
Politics
We live in a political town, the good jobs go to friends and family of those in charge. The good ole boys and girls club. As a quickly aging worker, I left for school and came back, was able to purchase a house with an apartment, and I've worked two jobs most of my adult life. It isn't easy to live here and it makes it hard because it isn't talent that is recognized, it's who you know, it's always been that way. Managers manipulate the system to hire specific people, and that's the way life is. Personally, I'm looking at running away from this town, while there is no place I'd rather be in the summer time, that cannot make up for all the rest of BS we have to put up with here all year round. I think it's time for another buy out, retire the old tier 1's and 2's get ride of the double dippers and get fresh relevant talent in place. Weed out the thinking of it works don't fix it, or because it's always been done this way attitude and let's innovate. But there are too many people making a cake living for that to ever happen, and when they retire they'll leave this town.
discussion derailed,
agreed that notion that Juneau is going down b/c there isn't enough ATV terrain is absurd and simply derails the discussion.
jwdvorak, I disagree that the new swimming pool, new school, nicer sidewalks are bad for the locals. Even if I never use these items, these are generally community enhancing projects that increase the general welfare of our existing young families and make others slightly more interested in moving here. In fact, most of the facilities you referenced are not for tourists at all (the school definitely is not, and I doubt cruse shippers will head out to the valley to soak in the new pool). Tourism, of course, benefits Juneau's economy, so promoting it is not inherently a bad thing, but that's a bit off topic.
I'm not certain there's much the government can or should do to make Juneau more affordable. Is that really what the government should do -- try to counter the natural supply-demand effect in order to lower the cost of real estate? The market has dictated incredibly high prices for real estate. As the population decreases, that should change, but let's face it, there are some deep pockets in this town that can and will continue to pay high prices for small houses with very little land (compared to what you can get down south). The high cost of real estate simply is not going to change any time soon, absent an exodus of a sizeable chunk of the population.
Unrelated to housing, the government can, however, offer incentives to promote the development of certain sectors of the economy here, as it currently does for the mining, tourism, and construction sectors. If it ever does that for emerging, technology sectors, we might see young folks stick around, return, come here from elsewhere, etc.
taxes
I don't know if you have any property here or not Kevin Costner..... but, get real Property taxes are enormous here in Juneau. Check out Sitka, Haines etc.. and even some communities that don't have any... Property tax is killing me in this town. Not even our city manager owns property..... does this mean he is ready to run when we figure out that he makes more than the governor?
property taxes
Alaskansfirst. I do own property here and have not compared what my taxes would be if I lived in Sitka or Haines. I don't think we should use Sitka, Haines or Ketchikan as a model for our economy. The census shows that the rest of Southeast is shrinking in population but Juneau had a small increase. We are the bright spot in Southeast. How can it be that property taxes are driving away people when people are leaving other parts of Southeast?
Notice that you can ride an ATV almost everywhere in Ketchikan but their economy sucks and people are leaving town. ATVs haven't done anything to stop the bleeding.
Juneau is a decent place to live. Property taxes are low by national standards and they get us things that other Southeast towns do not have like decent swimming pools and other things that improve life for people raising families. I don't use the pool but it is an asset to the community. The city does pander to tourists with projects like cobblestone walks but they don't have much choice. It's illegal to spend head tax money on non tourist projects. The tourist oriented projects do create jobs though.
taxes
real property taxes are something like 1.1% (if you live on the road system) of the property's assessed value -- hardly counts as enormous. Sure, it may be lower in other cities and non-existent in others. But, in light of the fact that there is no income tax and a 5% sales tax, it's hard to quibble with the amount of taxes one pays here. Quibbling raises the obvious point that comes across a bit harshly, but if your property taxes are "killing" you, maybe buying the place you have wasn't such a good idea in the first place.
And the City Mgr owns property here, just check out the City Assessor's database and you can confirm that.
I recall being a kid who
I recall being a kid who could not wait to leave here. Then i left and maybe i just went to the wrong places because everywhere i went.....it sucked! Too many people, not enough pay, major competition for jobs......So to all of you who are leaving.....YOU'LL BE BACK mwa ah ah ah!
Reality
I agree with kflynn, most people who grew up here will ultimately return. Growing up here it is very easy to be a big fish in a small town if one possesses any sort of talent, athletics or scholastics or artistic. Many are recognized at the State level, so naturally the youth think they can go anywhere and have the same type of success. We all want to be Boozer in our own way. Reality bites! I think we're 10 years off from relief, since all the boomers will retire somewhere warmer and closer to grand kids, the Alaska winters are hard on arthritic joints. The opportunities are here, it's all about how bad people want something, most want to play more then they work and life doesn't work that way, at least not for the majority.
planning commission not working
I agree that affordable housing is the main reason many young families decide to head south or to Anchorage.
On two occasions, I have had to go in front of the planning commission to ask to build a permited accessory apartment on my property and had many neighbors write letters opposing affordable housing.
Many of them wrote to the planning commission complaining to not allow accessory apartments in the Auke Bay area as they don't want renters in their neighborhood.
It is this attitude that is prohibiting affordable housing to prosper and allow young people to stay.
A short and incomplete list of things to do
Haven't I done this before? All things a driving age kid could do in town - I get so tired of the 'there's nothing to do here' (if I can't ATV or whatever) argument....
Go to the Movies
Go for a day hike
Go for an overnight hike – rent a cabin or take a tent
Go indoor rock climbing
Go outdoor rock climbing
Go out to dinner
Go to the hot bite for ice cream
Go kayaking for the day
Go overnight kayaking
Take an art class - Canvas
Go to Zach Gordon
Play soccer – Parks and Rec
Play softball – Parks and Rec
Play basketball – Parks and Rec
Get a community garden plot
Go skiing – downhill or cross country, continues after the area is closed.
Take a community schools class – fly tying/judo/art/etc.
Go swimming
Go out the road and have a day at the beach – picnic, Frisbee, etc.
Get a camera, take photographs
Start a blog
Go stream fishing for trout
Go to the beach or in a skiff for salmon/halibut fishing
Go for a mountain bike ride on the trails
Go for a road bike ride.
swimmergirl. You forgot one
It's a good list but you left one out.
Wallow in despair and self pity because there aren't enough places to ride.
Juneau needs some kind of industry...
Software development (mentioned above) is a good idea--all you need is smart people and connectivity. Pay is good. It would help to have a good program at UAS that was graduating people with the needed background.
The four of us will probably not last here. Need more sun, better/fresher food, more sun, lower cost of living, and MORE SUNLIGHT.
See ya, and good luck.
Rate increase
If AEL&P gets their 24% rate increase it will be yet another nail in the coffin