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Easing sanctions will show good faith,could resolve nuclear standoff

Posted: June 1, 2012 - 12:00am

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Will the international sanctions currently in place against Iran keep it from developing nuclear weapons? Is Iran likely to develop nuclear weapons if left to its own devices?

The world’s major powers are playing a delicate diplomatic game to get Iran to prove it is not developing nuclear weapons. Sanctions imposed six months ago on Iran’s central bank, and on Iran’s sale of oil, have sent the Iranian economy into a tailspin. More sanctions are scheduled to take effect in July.

The basis for this pressure on Iran is clouded in legal and moral ambiguity. Iran is a party to the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which says that nuclear weapons should not be acquired by countries that do not already have them. Nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is fine, but is subject to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iran allows inspection, but not to every site the inspectors want to visit.

Under the treaty, existing nuclear powers are supposed to negotiate towards nuclear disarmament. But they have dallied. So the powers that developed nuclear weaponry early on are telling Iran it may not do the same.

Iran is enriching uranium to a 20 percent level, and uranium at that level can easily be enriched further, to a level needed for weapons. Iranian officials are quick to point out that enriching uranium is not a violation of the Treaty. Iran says it has no plans to build nuclear weapons, and there is no firm evidence that it is moving that way.

To heighten the ambiguity of the situation, a regional state perennially at odds with Iran, namely Israel, already possesses nuclear weapons, and in condition to be launched at any moment.

This gives Iran a perfect reason to acquire them — as a deterrent to Israel. The major impetus for any state to acquire nuclear weapons is to keep an adversary from using them. The Western powers do not pressure Israel to divest of its nuclear weapons. They barely speak in public of the existence of Israel’s nuclear stocks.

So while the Obama administration portrays its efforts against the development of nuclear weapons by Iran as keeping the world safe, the uneven pursuit of a nuclear-weapon-free world clouds its moral authority.

A related criticism is that the United States is simply doing Israel’s bidding. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delights in discussing the “existential threat” that a nuclear Iran would pose to Israel.

A focus on Iran gives Netanyahu the moral high ground, which Israel desperately needs, while it is routinely excoriated in international institutions for taking more and more Palestinian land for settlements.

Iran may perceive the sanctions being aimed less at its nuclear program than at regime change. If that is Iran’s perception, as some analysts suggest it to be, then the sanctions are not likely to convince Iran to make changes in its nuclear policy. The Western powers have not hid their dislike for the current Iranian government.

A six-nation group — the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany — is negotiating with Iran about its nuclear program. But the six are not united.

While the Western powers advocate tough sanctions, Russia is calling for an immediate easing of them in preparation for the next round of talks, to be held shortly in Moscow. Russia has denounced new restrictions approved a few days ago by the U.S. Senate, which would further tighten existing sanctions on Iran’s banks and oil exports.

Iran meanwhile is in apparently serious talks with the IAEA to allow inspection of military sites hitherto closed to inspectors.

IAEA Director-General, Yukiya Amano, professes optimism that Iran may agree. That access could help determine Iran’s intentions. Easing sanctions might just show the West’s good faith and help resolve the nuclear standoff.

• Quigley is a professor of law at Ohio State University.

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Latitude58
14494
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Latitude58 06/01/12 - 07:54 am
1
1

Sorry

I have to go with Haas on this one. Iran has such a long history of playing cat and mouse with this. Keep the pressure on. As long as U.S. troops aren't being sent in.

Grendel
1118
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Grendel 06/01/12 - 07:56 am
2
2

stay the course

“Iran is enriching uranium to a 20 percent level, and uranium at that level can easily be enriched further, to a level needed for weapons.”

Okay, splitting the atom sounds easy, too, but there’s more to it than that. The fact is Obama shifted from a nuclear Iran being “unacceptable” to accepting it. So his policy appears to be preventing the development of a nuclear weapon. If that’s the policy, STICK TO IT. We aren’t the ones that have to show good faith – we’re already in the Nuclear Club, and what reason do we have to trust the Iranians at their word – on anything?

Alaskastu
1652
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Alaskastu 06/01/12 - 01:18 pm
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Because of diplomatic BS we

Because of diplomatic BS we fall for crap like this Everytime. Remember the decade leading up to Iraq2.0? North Korea? As the governing force for the world, the UN needs to set simple straight forward rules. And no more chances. I'm tired of us going into these places because the UN would rather spend decades of back and forth with these countries.
The UN should have access to anywhere anytime. I'm all for diplomacy but when one side abuses the process, NOTHING gets done. There should be concrete fall back procedures. This is the world law, don't follow it you have 1 week to do this this and this, after that troops roll in and we find out what's up and stop it.

Persnickety Persimmon
4173
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Persnickety Persimmon 06/01/12 - 01:29 pm
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@Alaskastu: so your solution

@Alaskastu: so your solution is to kill and maim the inhabitants of nations whose rulers act belligerently? There are real lives at stake here. This isn't a video game.

Grendel
1118
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Grendel 06/01/12 - 01:36 pm
1
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AKStu

Where are these troops rolling in from? What - the UN puts the Bat in the Sky and the troops just muster to go wherever the UN directs?

The UN is a joke, not an authority. It is only as legitimate as we percieve it to be, because without the US the UN has NO TEETH.

Alaskastu
1652
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Alaskastu 06/01/12 - 02:28 pm
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Quite the jump pp. never

Quite the jump pp. never said anything along the lines of what you suggest. If you don't understand what I ment, then ask, your conclusion jumping doesn't accomplish anything :)
Take Syria right now. 15 months of this guy breaking UN resolutions over an over while running his country into the ground. Nothing has been accomplished.
I'll rephrase, what is happening now, does not work.

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