Much as has been written about how the Latino Tide and the Gender Gap swept Obama into a clear victory by popular vote and a most decisive victory electorally. Much less noted is how the Obama campaign mined the Census 2010 data to augment their data base to 1) fine-tune their targeted messaging to households and 2) motivate their supporters to turn out in the same numbers as in 2008.
Just a glance of these numbers — Obama carried a whopping 93 percent of black voters (representing 13 percent of the electorate), 60 percent of the youth vote, (which increased its turnout to 19 percent of the electorate) and 71 percent of Latinos (representing 10 percent of the electorate) — and you can begin to see that the most significant event of this presidential contest might very well have the 2010 Census. Using the results of the 2010 Census also played significantly into Alaska’s statewide elections but for completely different reasons.
However, here the 2010 Census was used to redraw election lines that in the end favored Republican candidates over Democratic candidates. Since Alaska’s Redistricting Board had 4 of 5 seats appointed by the Governor, the Senate President and the Speaker of the House all of whom were Republicans, it’s easy for Democrats to cry ‘gerrymandering’. Republicans in their defense rightly point to major shifts in Alaska’s population. Rather than debate whether the Alaska Redistricting Board engaged in ‘gerrymandering’ or ‘simple demographics’ when drawing new election districts, it is important to note that sources on both side of the aisle acknowledge that if Sen. Joe Paskvan, Sen. Joe Thomas, and Sen. Bettye Davis had faced re-election in districts drawn the same as in their last election, they all would have won re-election and Sen. Hollis French would have won by a wider margin. As such, the 2010 Census played a dominant role in statewide elections as well.
But how the census is used affects how one can interpret the election results. Because of the very nature of a national presidential campaign President Obama’s use of demographics is not undermined by redistricting and as such there is more alignment of issues with outcomes. The issues of immigration reform and women’s rights are now demographically aligned. Obama knows this and can build upon it.
In Alaska any such alignment of issues and election outcome is clouded by the dominant role redistricting played. For example, when looking at the outcome of Alaska’s Senate races, Gov. Parnell and his supporters of the $2 billion tax giveaway may now be better positioned as a result of the election, but it does not mean there is a voter mandate for such action. This lack of alignment is also corroborated by the election of Sen. Peter Micciche, (R-Soldotna), who took a harder stance against the oil tax break than former Sen. Tom Wagoner whom Sen. Micciche unseated in the primary. Furthermore, the last statewide poll (March 2012) conducted by Hays Research Group found that 50 percent of Alaskans believe that Alaska taxes the oil companies either too little or about right with 30 percent thinking oil taxes are too high. In other words, getting more Republicans in the Alaska Senate does not necessarily mean that Alaskans are now ready to support lower taxes for oil companies.
A recent Empire editorial about the state election results and the upcoming legislative session suggested there was a connection between Sen. French’s squeaker re-election and oil tax support. The editorial stated, “We hope that French and others who have opposed the plan will take a look at the facts and do what is best for Alaskans, not what is best for a partisan agenda.” This is wrong on two accounts. First it reads too much into an election dominated by redistricting outcomes and errors in assuming most Alaskans want a massive reduction in oil taxes. Secondly, this statement in the Empire editorial overlooks the fact that it was the entire Bipartisan Coalition, including six Republicans, which opposed the plan. The defeat of the $2 billion oil tax giveaway was not the result of a partisan agenda. Hopefully this time when the Legislature convenes the issue of oil taxes will again be free of a partisan agenda and openly debated by legislators mindful of the significance of the 2010 Census.
• Troll is a long-time Alaskan with more than 22 years of experience in fisheries, coastal policy and energy policy. She resides in Douglas.





Comments (10)
Add commentObama won because he promised
Obama won because he promised stupid, greedy people that he would take care of them. And put the associated cost on their grand kids.
Welcome to Idiocrtacy, stupid women believing some made up "war on woman",& way to many other morons voting for "free stuff".
We are witnessing the decline of the United States.
It's that kind of charm, Madison
that kept Obama in the White House. I think the decline of the United States began a long time ago, when we started valuing money over our founding principles
Another thoughtful column by Kate
What Kate didn't mention regarding redistricting is that nationwide the republicans would likely have lost the House this election had they not gerrymandered so many districts to protect their majority. The lesson in that is that who's elected governor matters, since governors set up the redistricting boards after the census.
Kate is making one error in her assumption regarding Parnell's oil tax giveaway - that he and his crony legislators are working on behalf of the majority of Alaskans. Want to know what their motivation is? Follow the money.
@madison
You are so right. When half of the people are takers they are going to vote for those that will continue giving without work.
Petty meanness
Those who insist in labeling folks as takers, losers, and idiots have forgotten the spirit of humanity - and especially they have forgotten how to be a true American.
A strong nation needs wise hearts and minds, not shallow little whiners and bullies.
Five Trillion Dollars of Stuff & Favors
Last I checked, Bishop Romney was promising the most stuff: five trillion dollars plus regulatory cuts and other favors for "traditional America." So the irony here is laughable if it wasn't insulting when the Bill O'Reilly "stuff" meme get's tossed around.
Blaming one's election loss on "the other guy" instead of taking responsibility for one's own failed message is nothing more than sour grapes.
Good riddance.
Mike
Alaska Takers
When the federal Recovery Act (the Stimulus) was passed, Alaska wasn't in a recession. Yet we received more federal stimulus dollars per capita than any other state. Triple your average dividend check -- that's what we got. Hey Mat-Su Borough Tea Partiers, how are those 111 million federal dollars working out for you? Schools and a park-and-ride.
The new hospital in Nome will care for people living in rural Alaska; the old hospital was almost old enough to be on Medicare.
Fairbanks, you did pretty well with $4,000 per capita. That money meant jobs. Private industry jobs.
I must have missed the press releases from Governor Giveaway and our congressional delegation condemning all this federal money coming into Alaska and all the jobs the Stimulus Act created here in Alaska.
To be fair, AynRand...
...he was only Lt. Governor Giveaway at that point. Governor Bible Spice was pretty enthusiastic about em though. Here's what she said about the first project, a new causeway in Gustavus:
“I’m pleased that we were able to work with state legislators and federal agencies to get rolling with the Gustavus project,” Governor Palin said. “With approximately $7.7 million in economic stimulus funds, coupled with previously appropriated National Park Service funds, this project can now move forward. This new causeway will create good paying jobs and will be a great benefit to the community.”
I don't seem to recall CAPT Zero complaining too much once he grabbed the reigns ('g' intentional) of power.
@middle
Wise hearts and minds?, We the working folks are TIRED of those who wish to stay home and get a hand out, its truly exhausting to get up every day just to pay more for those that don't want to get up. Really we do have good hearts and strong minds, we just want others to start caring for themselves instead of waiting for the government to do it. I am not talking about those with extremely debilitating disease like cerebral palsy or quadriplegic, I am talking about those that are on welfare, food stamps, and yes disability because they have a bum knee. It surprises me how many people have been going on disability over that past 2-3 years for small problems or pains. They could work as a cashier, or the state at a desk or...?