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Noting challenges, agency writes polar bear plan

Posted: August 28, 2011 - 9:07pm
As Alaska's polar bears near the end of summer sea ice melt over the Arctic Ocean, marine mammal biologists 900 miles away met in a windowless Anchorage convention center room to work on a federal polar bear recovery plan.   U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
As Alaska's polar bears near the end of summer sea ice melt over the Arctic Ocean, marine mammal biologists 900 miles away met in a windowless Anchorage convention center room to work on a federal polar bear recovery plan.

ANCHORAGE — In a windowless convention center room more than a thousand miles from polar bears roaming on sea ice, marine mammal biologists gathered last week in Anchorage to work on a recovery plan for the Arctic Ocean’s most famous fauna.

The Interior Department three years ago listed polar bears as threatened because of the alarming rate at which sea ice, their primary habitat, is projected to disappear each summer.

In the same announcement, then-Secretary Dirk Kempthorne said endangered species law would not be used to set climate policy or limit greenhouse gas emissions, a rule affirmed by the Obama administration.

The determination that the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will not be allowed to address the culprit for warming — greenhouse gases emitted worldwide — means the recovery plan will be like no other since the Endangered Species Act was signed by President Nixon 38 years ago.

“The best we can do is work with our domestic and international partners to address symptoms of climate change,” said wildlife biologist James Wilder, who heads the recovery plan effort, on Thursday.

Climate models project summer sea ice to be gone by mid-century, and possibly as soon as 2030, for America’s two populations of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea off Alaska’s north and northwest coasts. Polar bears use sea ice to den, travel, and most importantly, to hunt their primary prey, ringed seals.

Rosa Meehan, the USFWS marine mammals manager in Alaska, said recovery plans traditionally have dealt with a very specific threat that causes habitat loss.

“We don’t have that,” she said. “We’re dealing with a projected change and it’s not ‘a’ directed feature, it’s this climate change that all of us ... is in some way contributing to.”

Figuring out how much greenhouse gas melts what amount of ice, and how that equates to an effect on a particular bear, would require near impossible connections, she said.

“At the end of the day, you can’t say, ‘Well, someone driving an SUV down in California on the highways is going to make polar bear cub ‘A’ live two years less,” Meehan said. “There’s just too many huge steps in there to make those direct connections.”

So instead, wildlife managers are focusing on what they can control, such as assessing the condition of polar bear populations through habitat and demographic reviews, which present their own challenges.

Eric Regehr, a polar bear researcher for the agency, noted that there have been nearly 5,000 captures of polar bears in Canada’s Western Hudson Bay population, where animals are concentrated on land each fall and fairly easy to access.

The agency must make assessments of the Chukchi polar bear population, shared with Russia, from information gathered from just 220 bear captures between 2008 and 2011. He suggested that policymakers could focus on body condition, reproduction rates and other indices rather than population estimates with high margins of error.

Wilder said it will logistically be extremely difficult to match population information in the Chukchi Sea with information Regehr showed for Western Hudson Bay bears.

“In an ideal world, every year, we’d have a population estimate with a short little error bar around it,” he said. “But the truth is, population estimates take a lot of time, so they’re time delayed. We have an active management program where we have to make decisions on an annual basis.”

The demographic and habitat information and its reliability remain important, Meehan said, even as the agency is not addressing the primary threat.

The agency has no hard deadline for the recovery plan but will present a draft at an October meeting with other polar bear countries. The agency likely will have a formal draft recovery plan out for broad public review early next year, Meehan said.

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fromdustreturned
1468
Points
fromdustreturned 08/29/11 - 07:08 am
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0

I came from brilliance

I came from brilliance
And return to brilliance
What is this?

Ursus maritimus
250,000 b.c.e - 2100 c.e

sefisher
690
Points
sefisher 08/29/11 - 09:30 am
0
0

Seeing how our changing

Seeing how our changing climate is causing more severe more frequent storms one can only hope that the public will rush up to the plate and demand that congress do an about face and address the causes of our rapidly change climate
We can do something and we must do it now.

Our economy, our future depend on it.
There is no way we can endure the costs of climate change.

in protecting mankind
we protect the Polar bear

sefisher
690
Points
sefisher 08/29/11 - 10:56 am
0
0

each and everyone of us

each and everyone of us should write our reprensatives and demand that they act now.

https://donyoung.house.gov/Contact/default.aspx

http://begich.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/emailsenator

http://murkowski.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?p=EMailLisa

http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact

Email your friends and family and tell them to contact their Reps

sefisher
690
Points
sefisher 08/29/11 - 10:05 am
0
0

Art, have you email our reps

Art, have you email our reps yet?

the power of one, of "compound interest"...
we CAN do it, just by doing

Persnickety Persimmon
4173
Points
Persnickety Persimmon 08/29/11 - 10:02 am
0
0

@sefisher: do you seriously

@sefisher: do you seriously think Don Young cares at all what we have to say about global warming? Lisa Murkowski MIGHT, since she defied the Tea Party agenda and won, but I still doubt it.

Most of the people in congress will be long dead before things get really nasty. And even those who won't are well off enough that they'll be insulated from the consequences.

sefisher
690
Points
sefisher 08/29/11 - 10:25 am
0
0

Its all up to us becauseDon

Its all up to us because
Don Young works for you, you, and you.....
does he care, probably not BUT does he want to keep his job?

Really "nasty" is around the corner. The storms we are seeing now are the new norm.
Its already has gotten worse and this will contiune. Our infrastructure cant even handle last years storms. Rebuilding, again and again...
is impossible.
Just think of the compound problems of these storms from last year, this year & next years combined with the current do nothing congress.

If those of us that realize whats going on act, it will work.
But do it now and tomorrow and the next day. We have to put pressure on congress to act now.

sefisher
690
Points
sefisher 08/29/11 - 10:31 am
0
0

Here is an example: Dear : I

Here is an example:

Dear :

I am very concerned that our county is seeing more severe and more frequent storms. I am also concerned that congress seems unwilling to address our changing climate.

I want to see an “about face” in Congress this week on this issue.
Our economy can not endure the costs of climate change; we must implement a change in our policies today and address the causes of climate change. We must move to protect mankind and all other life on this planet.

Calypso
6882
Points
Calypso 08/29/11 - 12:17 pm
0
0

Can't let the echo chamber

Can't let the echo chamber rule this thread!

Now remind me again, with all that wonderful science at work - how well did the Irene hurricane models perform?!

Dismally. And you all expect us dim, man-made climate "deniers" to jump on board with polar bear extinction?

Please...

I would like to know how much money is going into all this hand wringing, though.

Leftist pipeline of rhetoric is working overtime again - Republican = stupid.

Milspec.
2481
Points
Milspec. 08/29/11 - 12:55 pm
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0

Dribble:

Glad you stepped in there Calypso, I was laughing so hard after reading all that dribble I couldn’t see the keyboard to type anything.

fromdustreturned
1468
Points
fromdustreturned 08/29/11 - 02:38 pm
0
0

Models were almost perfect with regards to storm tracking

The models of Irene predicted to within 10 miles of where it would make landfall and the path it would take. Their error was primarily in magnitude - they generally predicted larger category winds (3 -4) and the actual winds were less.

I notice that FAUX news published an editorial promoting the abolition of the National Weather Service, proposing instead to privatize it. That would mean a steady and wonderful stream of complete and utter non-scientific crap from whatever corporate-funded entity they selected to spew out nothing but garbage on how radiation is good for you, human beings can't possibly affect anything that might mean reduced profit, and whatever else they can lift from 1984. And those screaming loudest about "freedom" with the greatest ignorance would rush headlong to fasten the chains of commerce on their ankles, stamped, of course, with the American flag logo.

Calypso
6882
Points
Calypso 08/29/11 - 02:45 pm
0
0

But, but, art, the

But, but, art, the "scientists" didn't predict all the INLAND flooding, like in Vermont. That all was supposed to happen along the coast. Ooops!

Don't backtrack and try to spin the hype we listened to all last week. Truth is, the scientists were waaaay off.

How'd y'all like that kook reporter that was standing in the sewage foam. What an idiot - and "it doesn't taste that great" he said. Ick! Anything to hype the story.

Oh, well, atleast BO will have an excuse to start up the phoney infrastructure jobs again (can he still call them shovel ready or is that old speak?) next week during his epic job speech!! That hurricane ruined so many roads and bridges, you know.

Persnickety Persimmon
4173
Points
Persnickety Persimmon 08/29/11 - 03:35 pm
0
0

@Calypso: so you're basically

@Calypso: so you're basically saying that scientists erred in that the hurricane was worse than predicted in the models (which are never 100% accurate). If we apply this logic to climate change, then it may be worse than the models predict as a whole, which really does undermine your point.

Also, the fact that you can't conceive of uncertainty in science belies your ignorance of it. Climate change is real. It is proven. End story. The specific consequences won't be known until they happen, but what we do know is that storms will have more energy when they form on account of warmer waters, making them stronger and farther reaching. We also know that it will change the habitable zones of many organisms, likely resulting in extinctions, the spread of diseases, and altered weather patterns (which includes deluges in flood prone areas and droughts in others)

The fact that we can't predict what will happen with clairvoyant precision isn't a flaw with the science. It's a flaw with your mode of thinking. Stop trying to make it everyone else's problem.

Persnickety Persimmon
4173
Points
Persnickety Persimmon 08/29/11 - 03:45 pm
0
0

Calypso

boop

al97ct
465
Points
al97ct 08/29/11 - 04:48 pm
0
0

Todays Republicans are laying

Todays Republicans are laying out a course that
has the US moving at a high rate of speed to becoming the next Third World Country! "from unemployment, to housing, to poverty, to schools, to our crumbling infrastructure"...

lcummins
74
Points
lcummins 08/29/11 - 09:58 pm
0
0

WOW!

Blame it all on the Republicans! You people are morons. Haven't you figured out yet that both parties are responsible for most of the issues that we have as a nation? Begich is now trying to be a "fiscal conservative" but he voted for bills that quadrupled our National debt in the first months that Obama was President. He did this without even reading the bills. Is that leadership? Did the policies work? Of course not. Should we give Obama and people who supported him a second chance? No way! They tried their best ideas and failed miserably.

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