Alaska will bring in more than $10 billion in oil revenue during the current fiscal year, as record high oil prices continue to pump money into state coffers.
That’s a billion dollars more than was projected during the Department of Revenue’s last forecast, and $2 billion more than was brought in last year.
The department’s Spring Revenue Forecast is the Legislature’s last opportunity for an updated revenue projection for the current year, as well as the 2013 fiscal year for which they’re now adopting budgets.
The current 2012 fiscal year revenue forecast is based on nine months of actual revenues, as well as three months of projections-based Wall Street oil price forecasts.
For the 2013 fiscal year, beginning July 1, 2012, the numbers are all based on projections.
The Department is predicting less oil revenue next year, $8.6 billion in revenues, the result of expected lower oil prices, a decline in oil production, and stepped-up industry investment.
The forecast for full year oil prices this fiscal year is $114.59 per barrel, up from last year’s average price of $94.49 per barrel. The forecast for the next fiscal year is $110.44.
Revenue Commissioner Bryan Butcher, who has been warning of a looming financial crisis for the state, did so again in a statement accompanying the new revenue forecast.
“While higher than anticipated oil prices has given Alaska a strong revenue outlook, the long-term health of the state’s finances and Alaska’s economy depends on stemming the continuing decline in North Slope oil production,” he said.
Butcher and Gov. Sean Parnell are pushing for reduction of about $2 billion a year, at current prices, to Alaska’s oil taxes.
• Contact reporter Pat Forgey at 523-2250 or at patrick.forgey@juneauempire.com.





Comments (7)
Add commentNow you see it now you don't
"The Senate unveiled its $2.6 billion capital budget over the weekend, a goody-laden bill that includes more than $380 million in earmarked projects for the Anchorage area -- but nothing for the Knik Arm bridge and only a portion of the amount sought for Anchorage port construction.
Read more here: http://www.adn.com/2012/04/08/2413593/senate-releases-its-capital-budget.html#storylink=cpy"
Juneau Empire -- what's up with your legislative coverage?
Sorry Bryan, but I call BS
Are you trying to suggest that the price of oil will significantly decline over the next decade? Show me. All signs point toward continued increases in oil prices.
So what's the rush to pump it all out now? Leave some in the ground for our grandchildren when it'll be worth a fortune. The oil companies will go get it when it's worth $400 per barrel.
Aw, look at that ACES
program working just the way it's supposed to!! Sorry Bryan Butcher - the sky is NOT falling!
Annual projection, not decadal
Latitude - The article notes that the projection of price for oil drops by about 3.5% next year, not projecting a price decline for the next ten years. I'd rather the state be conservative in projections of oil revenue and bank any surplus than be taken by surprise when Pollyanna projections don't materialize and be faced with a deficit. That's how we try to manage the family budget. Oil production IS declining, as well. Your last point is one I've thought about and one reason why I don't live or die over whether or not ANWR is opened for oil exploration or not. Today any oil that may be there is extremely valuable. In 30 years it may very well be priceless.
Agreed Mark
Let's bank a good chunk of the returns we're getting while oil is high. That will carry us through any temporary dips in price. In the long run oil will be going up in price. Let's not let Chicken Little manage our resource for us.
And don't forget...
The oil companies' goal is to suck as much of it out of the ground as quickly and cheaply as possible. When it's all gone they'll move on.
Their corporate goals are quite different than our sovereign goals...unless you're Sean Parnell with a very short time horizon (2014).
ACES is working.
If production is declining, but the price of oil is increasing, and Alaskans are earning $1 billion more than projected, then why is decreased production a problem again, Governor?
I don't see declining production as a problem whatsoever if we are making more money due to the higher oil prices. The longer we hold on to our oil, the longer it will last!
Let's keep this in mind: The north slope sits on the largest oil field in North America. The big 3 oil companies aren't going to abandon that under any circumstances. They've invested in the infrastructure. They can [filtered word] and moan all they want about the price they pay us to drill it, but they are still getting a good deal.
They just want a better deal. They don't want lower taxes, they want NO taxes.
Greed.
Leave ACES alone. It is working beautifully.