The United States will become the world’s largest oil producer by around 2020, temporarily overtaking Saudi Arabia, as new exploration technologies help find more resources, the International Energy Agency forecast on Monday.
In its World Energy Outlook, the energy watchdog also predicted that greater oil and natural gas production — thanks partly to a boom in shale gas output — as well as more efficient use of energy will allow the U.S., which now imports some 20 percent of its energy needs, to become nearly self-sufficient around 2035.
That is “a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy-importing countries,” the Paris-based IEA said in its report. “Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt well beyond North America — and the energy sector.”
Rebounding U.S. oil and gas production is “steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade,” the IEA said.
For example, oil exports out of the Mideast will increasingly go to Asia as the U.S. becomes more self-sufficient. That will increase the global focus on the security of strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. Tensions between Iran and Western powers have raised concerns that oil exports from the Persian Gulf could be blocked in a potential conflict over Tehran’s alleged plan to develop nuclear weapons.
The IEA added that global trends in the energy markets will be influenced by some countries’ retreat from nuclear power, the fast spread of wind and solar technologies and a rise in unconventional gas production.
The agency concluded that despite the rising use of low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels “dominant in the global energy mix.”
“Taking all new developments and policies into account, the world is still failing to put the global energy system onto a more sustainable path,” the IEA said.
Global energy needs are forecast to increase by a third by 2035, with 60 percent of the additional demand coming from China, India and the Middle East.
Comments (21)
Add comment@Eaglecrester
I owe you an apology. A couple weeks ago in another column I disputed your claim that the U.S. was going to become the world's top oil producer. It looks like you were right. I'm sorry.
That being said, being the largest producer doesn't mean we have the largest reserves, only that we're depleting our reserves faster than anyone else. And we've ramped up our production due to fracking, tapping our shale gas & oil reserves. There are some critical reviews of the claims about how much oil and gas fracking will produce - the enormous reserves may be exaggerated by the oil & gas industry.
Note that the prediction of U.S. energy independence is hinged on the assumption that we follow through with the higher efficiency standards that Obama has mandated.
Also note that just because we're producing more doesn't mean that our fuel prices are going to go down. Our oil is priced on the world market, and growing demand in Asia will keep the price of oil headed upward.
Maybe we can reduce our huge military investments in the Middle East since we'll be independent of their oil.
Always with the glass half-empty.
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The right direction
I doubt we'll be depleting our reserves as fast as claimed, the greenies' doom and gloom when it comes to fossil fuel production is always negative at best. We have huge reserves of natural gas which is the energy of the near future. World prices are still a problem for us, we need some kind of discounted price for domestic use. Nothing can jump start an economy like affordable energy.
Geothermal is the energy of
Geothermal is the energy of the future. All that will happen from this shift is that the oil execs will get richer. We wont see any change, especially in our pockets.
Bandit
Google 'Bill Powers', an energy market expert who claims that our glut of shale gas won't last 10 years. He's stating that the gas industry is grossly overstating the reserves in order to get people to invest in gas infrastructure - then once the supply tightens and prices skyrocket, we're stuck with gas-consuming hogs that will take a huge amount of investment to shift away from. The gas suppliers will then make a fortune.
Nah, couldn't be true. Energy companies lying in order to make huge profits? Would never happen...
Well Ken...
Someone needs to be looking at these claims with a critical eye.
Long as it's not made of glass...
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Lat: No, honestly, I am with you in watching the oil industry
with a cynical eye. But I was here before the pipeline was a glimmer in anyone's eye. My parents stayed and raised a family here but the second and third generation would certainly have been lured by the sirens of the 20th much less the 21st century.
So for all the hyperbole of corporate greed and subterfuge I choose to hedge my bets on investment.
Price of gas
....And the price of gas in Saudi Arabia is $.91 a gallon.
"The agency concluded that
"The agency concluded that despite the rising use of low carbon energy sources, huge subsidies will keep fossil fuels “dominant in the global energy mix.”
I think this is all about to change. We can't afford fossil fuels or the changes in our climate that it causes. We can't afford the billions it costs tax payers each year to rebuild after these mega storms and we can't afford the subsidies to the oil industry.
sefisher: Nothing is about to change, and yes, we will afford
fossil fuels with accompanying climactic changes.
When something comes along which does not involve 200+ batteries to run a car after being plugged into the house...maybe. But I do not see this changing the world.
I enjoy people talking about
I enjoy people talking about mega storms and refer to the east coast. Coworker of mine moved over there this year and she said it was a joke. We get worse weather here and no one calls it a storm unless your on the water. The real joke is that the entire east coast isn't prepared for weather that does occur there. It's been a long time but the eat coast has had these storms in the past. If they had better designed drainages the flooding wouldn't have happened and that was the only real problem with the last 'megastorm'. But then again if they prepared for what could happen then everyone would whine and complain about building costs, kind of like requiring sprinkler systems.
Topic at hand. How is it America is pumping more oil then ever but republicans have been crying for 5 years now that Obama is killing industry and locking down local oil development? Quick question, does it hurt to constantly be proven wrong and see first hand the people feeding you their 'truths' are straight up full of [filtered word]? I'd guess not, it's easier to look away and deflect hard truths and shift focus to something else.
@stu - Obama is "killing
@stu - Obama is "killing industry". The oil development is mostly taking place on private land.
Did you see what Salazar did last Friday afternoon?
"The Obama administration announced Friday it will put a large swath of western lands –1.6 million acres — off limits to oil shale and oil sands leases that hold the potential to develop more than a trillion barrels of oil.
The plan still allows for the development of nearly 700,000 acres in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, but one key House Republican criticized the plan for limiting exploration that would further lead to energy independence.
“Allowing safe and responsible energy development on federal lands is a critical step toward reducing our dependence on Middle East oil, but rather than embrace our country’s resources, the president is designating even more federal areas as off-limits,” said Rep. Ed Whitfield (R-Ky.), chairman of the Energy and Commerce subcommittee on energy and power.
“This is after we saw oil production on federal lands decline by an average of 275,000 barrels per day in fiscal year 2011. While other countries like Canada are busy growing their economy by developing their own resources, this administration is busy promoting policies that embargo our own oil from ourselves,” Whitfield said."
Then you have the gall to ask this silly question - " Quick question, does it hurt to constantly be proven wrong and see first hand the people feeding you their 'truths' are straight up full of [filtered word]? I'd guess not, it's easier to look away and deflect hard truths and shift focus to something else."
Right back at ya...
True, Orionsbow
Gas is cheap in Saudi Arabia because of massive government price subsidies, on the order of $50 billion this year. The real price is much higher.
One of the released Wikileaks cables was from Saudi ministers stating that they believed their oil reserves were vastly overstated.
As a result of the artificially low prices, they are hugely wasteful. Due to their rapidly increasing demand, Saudi may be an oil-IMPORTING country by 2030.
And if Saudi can't keep supplying the world market, what do you think the price (here and everywhere) is going to do?
I'm going to keep my pad with
I'm going to keep my pad with its solar panels and windmill. When the power goes out in Juneau I don't even notice it. Now and again I take a little off the grid, but I put back more than I use.
It's a great news story, but let's not start stroking each other over these revelations. 2020 is still more than a few years off. With any luck we can avoid getting screwed by having a republican president until long after that date.
Really?
You hate liberty? Oh, you hate 'libraries'. Well, that's rather apparent.
Ah, got it
So you're just a hater then.
Christian too?
Wow, Lat...
Stereotype much, do ya??
The price of gasoline will
The price of gasoline will continue to increase as the reserves continue to deplete in Saudi. Although, the US will emerge as the largest oil producer in the world by 2020, that does not necessarily indicate that the prices will decrease. Unfortunately, it will become more expensive to drill when the oil that is relatively close to the surface becomes scarce requiring to drill further. And I agree with Lat58, the US does not have the largest reserves. Essentially, the oil we drill will be regarded as a "precious" commodity because of the rarity and high demand for it globally. I also believe that Russia will supply plenty of oil in the future as they may have some of the largest reserves in the world located in Siberia. On a good note, hopefully the oil industry will supply more jobs for Americans in the future.