Republican Gov. Sean Parnell is the only candidate tested in a Public Policy Polling survey of the 2014 Senate race released Thursday who does not trail Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, in a head-to-head trial heat.
Begich, who won election over then-Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, in a close and controversial 2008 race, is relatively popular, with 49 percent of those polled saying they approve of the job he is doing and 39 percent saying they disapprove.
Opinions on Parnell are more mixed, with 46 percent of respondents approving and 44 percent disapproving.
Parnell and Begich each garnered 48 percent in PPP's trial heat testing the two politicians against one another.
Meanwhile, if he runs for reelection next year as governor instead, Parnell appears to be the favorite, leading all prospective challengers PPP tested. The closest hypothetical gubernatorial matchup is with former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, D-Anchorage, who trails Parnell with 41 percent of the vote against the governor’s 50 percent.
In the Senate race, Begich leads Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has announced an exploratory committee for a Senate bid, with 47 percent to Treadwell’s 39 percent.
Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan fares slightly better, marshalling 41 percent support to Begich’s 47 percent.
Fairbanks attorney and unsuccessful 2010 candidate Joe Miller has the worst numbers of any Republican tested. PPP found Begich would beat him with 58 percent of the vote to just 30 percent for Miller.
PPP also found that Democratic President Barack Obama, who failed to carry Alaska last year but came the closest any Democrat has to winning the state since 1996, has a negative approval rating in the state, with 52 percent of respondents disapproving to 44 percent who said they approve.
The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday and surveyed responses from 1,129 Alaskan voters. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percent for the general election matchups.
Of the candidates tested in the poll, only Begich has indicated he will run for election. Parnell has said any announcement on running for Senate or seeking reelection will wait until after this year’s legislative session, while Treadwell has suggested that he may run for governor if Parnell gets into the Senate race.
Comments (23)
Add commentgot that right
out of touch
Rough Cut and fmast 50
Thanks for expressing your opinion. Yes, at the present time, Alaska is a "Red State" meaning many voters vote along Republican Party line.
However, there are many, like myself, who are and have been for fifty years, Alaskans who are registered as non-partisan voters. We are not Democrats nor Republicans, but individual Alaskans who weigh the records and qualifications of candidates for office and vote our conscience - not simply for some member of a political party. We look at the past, present and possible future for generations of Alaskans to come.
The poll reported was based on 1,129 people questioned. It may not accurately reflect all Alaskan voters. As one old timer told me years ago "Polls ?? Those are things dogs do things against." - or words to that effect that are not quite acceptable in the modern media.
I think that many voters do
I think that many voters do not know Lt. Gov. Treadwell.
That will change. Also, Begich is a known commodity, & can NOT reach 50%.
I also think Begich's negatives will rise when folk's are reminded about his vote for the disaster that is obama care .
B Franklin 1776
Quite an impressive pseudonym I must admit. Really kind of sounds one who is a great scholar of our founding fathers, and our Constitution. I may change mine to "George Washington" or " God" or something like that to be anonymous.
No I, like thousands of other Alaskans don't know Lt. Gov. Treadwell. I hope we can all find out much more about him in the future. Our current Senator Begich, as you say is a known commodity, has a public record as mayor Anchorage and a voting member in Congress. What is Treadwell's public record?
Maybe some day we non-partisan voters can look at his record and see if he might be the candidate we might vote for in the next election. Unlike you, I can't agree with your assumption that Senator Begish "cannot reach 50%" - your perhaps have much greater wisdom, knowledge and insight that thousands of other voters.
Talk about predicting the future about Begich and health care, wow, I wish I had such predictive certainty. I feel that what you write is more speculation and optimism, hopes and dreams, than something based on factual evidence.
Happy fantasy day.
PPP is notorious for over
PPP is notorious for over sampling democrats.
Wonder how they asked their poll questions.
Did they only poll active, registered voters?
I wouldn't put much stock in this poll.
And I'd love to see the question they asked to get Joe Miller's numbers.
Not for long!
The Parnell/Treadwell oil tax giveaway will likely be rubber-stamped this session, which will rapidly put Alaska into deficit spending. By the time the senate campaign rolls around in earnest, Alaska will have depleted its savings account by billions, despite high oil prices. What a bulls-eye for Begich to aim for.
And at the same time, the U.S. economy will likely have continued its slow but steady improvement. There'll be actual oil production starting in the Arctic (debatable on whether that's a good thing, of course), due in large part to Begich's efforts. His ratings will be rising at exactly the same time that Parnell/Treadwell's, due entirely to their own policies, will be plummeting.
It'll be a bloodbath.
Parnell would be just another
Parnell would be just another obstructionist in the Senate.
Look how he treated Pres. Obama.
Hate to confuse "Calypso" and others with the facts
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2012/11/also-vindicated-public-p...
Also Vindicated in the Election: Public Policy Polling
"Obama may have won last night, and so did Nate Silver, but another victor in the election was the Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling. PPP had raised eyebrows shortly before the election with a series of polls that showed Obama leading, but a study from Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos found it was the most accurate pollster in the election."
And if Calypso is truly interested in the questions that PPP asked, he or she can go here:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/begich-leads-likely-chal...
The state voted a democrat
The state voted a democrat over a straight up crook. Parnell is far scarier then Stevens ever was. Stevens at least tried to back door deal secretly, Parnell doesn't even pretend to be selling the state out from under us. I don't see it as closely as some republicans would like to. But who can blame them? They lost the presidency again, miller got handed his ass, palin turned out to just be a flat out shame on the state. Just can't get a break. But you still have your guns and favorite pastime, the blame game.
Parnell is likely to go the
Parnell is likely to go the way of Frank Murkowski. Beaten by a new fresh face as the realization that he hasn't accomplished anything finally sinks in. Nobody in Alaska has great love for the guy. Loyalty is more important than ability for his helpers. The economy continues to stagnate. Federal and state spending will decrease and he'll take some of the blame for that.
Nobody knows who Treadwell is outside of the Anchorage country club set. Don't know if that will change. Maybe with enough money.
lat,
you are assuming that the people who support parnell now will change their mind before the mid-term... this requires the assumption that they garner critical thinking skills or that they aren't fiscally tied to Parnell's bad-for-Alaska legislation. Personally I don't expect this poll to change much. They will feel the same Wednesday as they do Monday, no matter what happens Tuesday.
wmolson-Obama's IRS has
wmolson- " non-partisan" ? How laughable. I can not remember you advocating, even once, for liberty over government.
Because as any thinking individual knows, the bigger the government, the smaller the citizen.
Obama's IRS has stated that the cheapest insurance plan under the "Dear Leaders" health care take over will cost $20,000 by 2016.
http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/irs-obamacare-cost-family/2013/02/01/id/4...
Obama/.Begich care is causing job loss, or reduction in hours worked.
http://hedgehogcentral.blogspot.com/2012/11/obamacare-causes-loss-of-ful...
And added cost to employers, i.e. less money to hire, &/or expand.
http://washingtonexaminer.com/obamacare-red-tape-burden-127602371-hours-...
This is just a quick start highlighting the disaster that is obama/Begich care.
incumbant reality
So many here seem to forget the advantage incumbents have. Sure some here believe Parnell would go to Washington and fix everything. Those voters were certain Murcowski was going to fix everything when she got back to DC. But the reality is Murcowsky did not. Parnell is a big oil man. Moving him from Juneau to DC is not going to make him more Alaskan and less oiled.
Maybe people should look at the poll...
...before saying Juneau is out of touch. You know because it was actually a statewide poll. But hey, nobody ever said the right wing commenters here ever burdened themselves with research and facts.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AK_020713.pdf
"PPP surveyed 1,129 Alaska voters and 537 usual Republican primary voters from February 4th to 5th."
Q27 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 9%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 15%
Moderate......................................................... 33%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 25%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%
@calypso
Here's the question PPP asked for Joe Miller's numbers:
Q18 If the candidates for Senate next year were
Democrat Mark Begich and Republican Joe
Miller, who would you vote for?
Mark Begich.................................................... 58%
Joe Miller ........................................................ 30%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%
You must be used to Republican push polls that say something like "Would you vote for the person who supports indvidual liberty or the suspected dog raper?"
Boorba
If the choice is between Joe Miller and a dog raper...uh...I'll have to get back to you on that.
Elephants or Donkey's?
Gun control & politics
Its not about banning guns. Its not a yes or no question. But
I sincerely hope we are not determining our Congressional future on whether or not nut case has the right to buy a gun.
benfranklin 1776
I don't think there is inherent adversarial relationship between "liberty" and "government." It is not "either one or the other, but not both." We have a great deal of liberty with our government.
However if one defines individual preference,greed, or hostility to others, as "liberty" I guess there would be a conflict. In addition to individual liberties, we also have social responsibilities and obligations towards others, including fellow citizens young, old a needy
By the way, over my fifty years in Alaska, I have voted for both Republicans and Democrats, and have even made small campaign contributions to both Democrats and Republicans. I vote for whom I think is the best candidate, most qualified and not along political party lines.
wmolson- When the states
wmolson- When the states agreed to form a "Republic", they only did so because they had hhammered out a deal, a contract, i.e. the constitution, that created a federal government to deal with national defense, foreign relations, & interstate commerce. Obvious short comings of the articles of confederation.
But the contract, ( as from slavery) correctly in my view, left the states free to govern their populations as their people saw fit.
That contract has not been respected by the feds hungry for power, or many of the states hungry for federal money, i.e. they sold their sovereignty for a few pieces of silver.
But no were in that contract is there ANY language stating that we have a " responsibilities and obligations towards others, including fellow citizens young, old a needy".
Since the government has no money of it's own to help what ever group the feds dictate are " in need", the feds must use the threat of violence to confiscate ( tax ) the fruits of ones labor, & spread around as it sees fit.
This action is a attack on Americans life, & liberty.
I concede that there is a legitimate need for a certain amount of taxation at the federal level to fund the enumerated, i.e. contractual, federal responsibilitys.
But since taxation is coercion, a government of, by, & for "the people" should use this awesome power as sparingly as possible
When the states agreed to
When the states agreed to form a "Republic", they only did so because they had hhammered out a deal, a contract, i.e. the constitution, that created a federal government to deal with national defense, foreign relations, & interstate commerce. Obvious short comings of the articles of confederation.
But the contract, ( as from slavery) correctly in my view, left the states free to govern their populations as their people saw fit.
That contract has not been respected by the feds hungry for power, or many of the states hungry for federal money, i.e. they sold their sovereignty for a few pieces of silver.
But no were in that contract is there ANY language stating that we have a " responsibilities and obligations towards others, including fellow citizens young, old a needy".
Since the government has no money of it's own to help what ever group the feds dictate are " in need", the feds must use the threat of violence to confiscate ( tax ) the fruits of ones labor, & spread around as it sees fit.
This action is a attack on Americans life, & liberty.
I concede that there is a legitimate need for a certain amount of taxation at the federal level to fund the enumerated, i.e. contractual, federal responsibilitys.
But since taxation is coercion, a government of, by, & for "the people" should use this awesome power as sparingly as possible
What a great idea
Parnell gives up the governors seat to run against Begich. Mark of course wins because Parnell has proven to be an oil sell out. Parnell is out of both seats! Alaska Wins!