Southeast clout diminishing

Southeast Alaska's decline in population is likely to cost the region at least one seat in the Alaska Legislature after redistricting as a result of the 2010 census, reapportionment experts say.

"It almost assuredly will cost you a seat in the House," said Tom Begich, a professional consultant and redistricting expert. Begich is the brother of U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska.

Growing populations in Southcentral Alaska are likely to mean a new House seat for the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, probably at the expense of Southeast. Other parts of Alaska, including Western, Northern, and Interior regions, have been stagnant or dropping, said Sen. Bert Stedman, R-Sitka.

"It appears that all of coastal Alaska is going to have their districts (geographically) expanded," he said.

Every 10 years the U.S. Census Bureau comes up with official population numbers, and then Alaska redraws the state's 20 Senate districts and 40 House of Representative districts to maintain equal representation by population.

One of Southeast's three Senate seats - one of which now stretches from southern Southeast to far into the Interior and Northern Alaska - may also be at risk. Southeast has about one-tenth of the state's population, which would merit two senators, but three Southeast residents serve in the Senate.

Along with Stedman, that includes Juneau's Dennis Egan and Angoon's Albert Kookesh, both Democrats.

How Southeast gets divided will likely determine representation in the Legislature. The worst-case scenario for incumbents is for district lines to be redrawn with sitting legislators in the same district.

In the Senate, Southeast may retain a Juneau-dominated Senate seat if a state redistricting commission, expected to be appointed soon, follows the past practice of grouping communities of interest together, Begich said.

"The Constitution says you have to, wherever possible, keep communities tied together," he said.

At the same time, it will have to take into consideration the federal Voting Rights Act mandate that Alaska Native representation be taken into consideration. In the past, that has required the creation of majority Native districts.

"We have to do that," Begich said. "We were one of those few states, like the Deep South, that had institutional discrimination."

Kookesh now holds a Senate seat made up of many Alaska Native villages in Southeast and the Interior, but many of those villages have been losing population. That could mean the district, already huge geographically, could get bigger if the commission attempts to retain its Native majority.

In the House, Southeast currently has five legislators, though Rep. Bill Thomas' district stretches up the coast to Prince William Sound to bring in additional population.

There is widespread agreement among redistricting watchers that at least one of those five seats will be lost.

Alaska Democratic Party Executive Director Deborah Williams said she recently returned from a tour of Southeast with party officials, and heard repeated fears about the region's declining influence.

"We heard from a dozen people in Southeast that this was a major concern," she said.

• Contact reporter Pat Forgeyat 523-2250 or e-mail patrick.forgey@juneauempire.com.