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Somehow, one of the biggest issues facing Alaska today has all but escaped public attention - the federal plan to open vast areas of Alaska's outer continental shelf to oil and gas leasing.
My turn: Offshore oil plan risky 100506 opinion 1 JuneauEmpire Somehow, one of the biggest issues facing Alaska today has all but escaped public attention - the federal plan to open vast areas of Alaska's outer continental shelf to oil and gas leasing.

My turn: Offshore oil plan risky

Somehow, one of the biggest issues facing Alaska today has all but escaped public attention - the federal plan to open vast areas of Alaska's outer continental shelf to oil and gas leasing. While the government's five-year plan for 2007-'12 leaves most of the nation's seas (from three to 200 miles offshore) off limits to leasing. It proposes 21 sales nationwide, nine of which are off Alaska - two in the Beaufort Sea, three in the Chukchi, two in the North Aleutian Basin (Bristol Bay) and two in Cook Inlet. The government is now taking comments, and they are hearing loudly from drilling supporters.

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The proposal to lease these large areas offshore of Alaska for oil and gas may be more consequential to our future than the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, National Petroleum Reserves-Alaska, corroded pipelines, and the gas line combined. The American Petroleum Institute estimates that the Alaska outer continental shelf could contain 25 billion barrels of oil and 120 trillion cubic feet of gas - more than the entire West Coast and East Coast of the nation combined. And in our national hydrocarbon panic, the oil industry is pushing hard to get into these remote areas off Alaska, and the federal government seems poised to give them anything they want.

But Alaska's outer continental shelf is also one of our nation's most productive marine ecosystems. Alaska has more continental shelf, marine mammals, seabirds, fish, shellfish and shoreline than the rest of the nation combined. Our offshore ecosystem supports the nation's largest fisheries and the oldest subsistence tradition. And with its infamous stormy seas, sea ice and remoteness, the Alaska shelf is one of the most difficult working environments in the world.

Clearly, the risks of offshore oil are greater in Alaska than anywhere else in the nation.

The draft environmental impact statement for the proposed leasing program is simply not fit for the purpose. It overstates benefits and downplays risk - the "don't-worry-be-happy" approach. Such complacency is a recipe for disaster.

The draft statement is full of inaccuracies, inadequately assesses cumulative effects, and gives short shrift to risks to threatened and endangered species. In the North Aleutian basin, these include Steller eider, Steller sea lions, North Pacific right whales (with 100 left, the most critically endangered whale in the world), sea otters, short-tailed albatross, humpback and fin whales. And the region's fisheries are critical to the state. All of this is put at considerable risk by the leasing plan. Everyone knows this, yet the draft statement does not honestly address this risk.

Offshore exploration poses its own unique problems. For instance, the seismic exploration program now underway in the Arctic Ocean originally incorporated rigorous standards requiring companies to shut down their seismic shoots when whales are exposed to dangerous sound levels, which can extend 50 miles from the vessel. After first agreeing to this, ConocoPhillips went to court and had this requirement suspended - not a good first step into the Alaska shelf, and an ominous sign of things to come. Perhaps the federal government should take over the entire seismic program, contract its own seismic vessel, do it right, and sell the data to interested companies.

The most troubling inadequacy of the draft statement is its dramatic underestimate of oil spill risk and impact. Did these folks learn nothing from Exxon Valdez? They predict two "major" oil spills in lease areas over the 40-year life of the operation, and then seriously down play the potential size and affect of such spills. This is the same thinking that predicted the probability of an Exxon Valdez spill at about one in 241 years - it took only 12 years. The draft entirely ignores such low-probability, high-consequence events. No catastrophe possible here. Recall that most of the populations injured by the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill have yet to fully recover.

This isn't "doing it right." For such a huge issue, Alaska and the nation deserve better. We've learned not to trust government and the oil industry collaborating behind closed doors without informed public oversight. Alaskans should get informed and engaged in this process, and soon. You have until Nov. 22 to comment, and all documents and comment instructions can be found at www.mms.gov/5-year/.

• Rick Steiner is a Juneau resident and professor at the University of Alaska Southeast.


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