Retirement affects businesses, creates careers
For their kids, grandkids and new immigrants, the baby boomers' retirement will be a career opportunity.
For the businesses and organizations they retire from, it could be a challenge.
Please visit our Aging Archives to view past stories from this series.
A quarter of Juneau's population will cross into retirement age by 2020, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Alaska's aging boomers are part of a national, even global, population imbalance that some international organizations predict could cause labor shortages, reduce national productivity and bankrupt pension plans.
According to the federal Social Security Administration, the number of Americans older than 65 will double between 1990 and 2030, while the working-age population will grow only 25 percent. That means there will be just two workers for every retiree, compared with 3 1/3 workers today.
Without immigration, Americans will need to work until they are 75 to fill the jobs, according to a report by the United Nations. The United States already took a step in that direction, raising the age for Social Security gradually from 65 to 67. Baby boomers won't be eligible until they turn 66.
However, the steady flow of immigrants into the United States is enough to balance out the labor gap, according to the U.N. report. Alaska will need them.
Alaska Department of Labor studies show state and local governments could lose a quarter of their employees to retirement in 10 years. More than a third of trans-Alaska oil pipeline workers are 50 or older. Despite early retirement, more than 47 percent of teachers and school administrators at all levels are 50 or older. More than a third of the officials, administrators, bus drivers, cooks, record clerks, plant system operators, personnel, training and labor relations specialists are over 50.
The retirement boom may hit Juneau's power supplier.
"There are a lot of baby boomers in this company, me included," said Alaska Electric Light and Power spokesman David Stone.
AEL&P already has difficulty finding apprentice lineman, which could mean a shortage in the next 20 years. Most linemen are in their late 40s. Some work into their 60s, "but quite a few of them retire in their mid to late 50s because they're out there in the weather, climbing poles," Stone said.
Some retirees are easier to replace than others, according to the state Department of Labor. When the 16 percent of older cannery workers retire, there may still be college students or seasonal migrants willing to do the work. But who will replace Alaska's pilots and navigators, 26 percent of whom are already 50 or older? Or the 1,500 nurses the Alaska Department of Labor predicts the state will need in the next 10 years?
Juneau's Bartlett Regional Hospital is looking to the future needs now, assessing its medical staff "in terms of their age and plans," said Chief Financial Officer Garth Hamlin.
"The average age of nurses is growing," Hamlin said, "and as the population ages there's more people who need hospitalization."
To meet that need, at least 100 people a month should be passing the nurse's exam, said Judy Nyman, workforce development project director for the Alaska Hospital and Nursing Home Association. Less than half that number have been taking the exam over the past few years.
Already, 450 nursing jobs are vacant across the state. And that doesn't count the licensed practical nurses, who have less training than registered nurses.
"Those figures follow along with the same things that we're seeing nationally and internationally, so there's not a market we can draw from," Nyman said.
Alaska ranks near the bottom for the per-capita number of nurses, physicians and other health-care workers. The state is dead last in the percentage of home health-care workers and orderlies who care for the elderly, "and we haven't even hit the crisis yet," Nyman said.
Juneau's hospital has a slightly younger staff and fewer unfilled jobs than other Alaska facilities. It's recruiting a couple of orthopedic surgeons and is collaborating with the University of Alaska Southeast to educate more nurses. But Bartlett still needs more radiology, MRI and other technicians and it doesn't have anybody who specializes in geriatric medicine.
Attracting younger people to work in Juneau is difficult right now, since the inflation-adjusted average salary is dropping as the cost of living rises, said Lance Miller, executive director of the Juneau Economic Development Council.
"You can't attract people from outside for jobs at any level," Miller said. While the cost of living in Juneau is still 30 percent higher, "Our per-capita income is now the same as the rest of the U.S."
Keeping older employees working longer might be part of the answer. About 60 percent of American workers plan to go back to work at least part time after they retire from their careers, according to an annual survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a nonprofit think tank.
"The labor market is very tight for federal employment as well, and why not have somebody who has many years of experience come back to work half time or as needed," said Neil Hagadorn, a U.S. Forest Service assistant director. "Those kind of people are tremendously valuable because they know the stuff and you don't have to invest in a rigorous training program because of the background and skill."