Where's winter?

Ullr, the Norwegian god of snow and a popular deity among local skiers and snowboarders, has not been benevolent to Juneau residents this winter.

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No snow has fallen here this season, breaking the previous record for late snowfall set in 1980, when snow fell on Nov. 20. Only one other November has been snow-free since 1943, and average snowfall in November is 12.3 inches.

This year's November was the second-warmest on record - the average temperature was 40.1 degrees, 6.9 degrees above the normal average - and unusually rainy.

The reason for the warm, rainy weather is a "long frontal connection from the south," said Jim Truitt, a lead forecaster with the National Weather Service in Juneau.

"What that means is that if you were to look at the satellite imagery, you would see a continuous band of clouds over the Gulf of Alaska and the Southeast coast which extend down south to 30 degrees north latitude ... northeast of Hawaii," Truitt said.

In short, Juneau has been getting a hint of Hawaii's tropical climate.

Why the band of clouds exists and what is necessary to break it up are complicated questions, Truitt said, but the fact that November was warm does not necessarily bode the same for the rest of winter.

"The wave mechanics of the northern hemisphere have set this up; however, that is not a good predictor that (the warm, rainy weather) is going to continue through the month of December," he said.

Although this year's El Niño, an unusual warming in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures that affects climates around the world, has had some effect on the weather in Southeast Alaska, the phenomenon should not be blamed for November's weather.

"El Niño is a weak connection," Truitt said. "People are seeing a lot of El Niño events talked about in the news, and the further south you go, the better it works. The further north you go, you become progressively more removed from the effects of El Niño."

Whatever its causes, this fall's weather is loved and hated by local residents.

Jim Williams, president of North Pacific Erectors, a contracting company in Juneau for 26 years, said this has been one of the best winters for his business.

"It's been warmer than almost any winter I can remember and if it hadn't been for the fog keeping things coming to town it would have been perfect for building," Williams said.

While his company usually can pour concrete foundations through November, this year's mild, snowfree weather has contributed to greater efficiency.

"Typically you have to cover the snow, or dig it out or heat it up," he said. "You can always pour, it's just a question of how much money you have in your budget to fight the winter."

Tire sales have suffered from the lack of snow. Dirk Ahrens, tire sales supervisor at Costco, said he had sold $20,000 more in snow tires by this time last year than he has so far this year.

"I'm sitting on close to 1,800 tires right now," he said. "People aren't buying because they're waiting for the snow."

Those who do install snow tires now run the risk of wearing out the studs before the snow falls, but they also enjoy shorter wait times for the changeover. Kim Baseden, who bought snow tires for her car Monday afternoon, said she's sure she'll need the tires soon.

"It's Juneau, Alaska," she said. "Eventually it's going to snow."

Outdoor enthusiasts, while lamenting the lack of skiing, have found other ways to keep themselves entertained. The Juneau Alpine Club hiked up Mount Juneau and along the ridge into Granite Creek Basin on Nov. 23, a trip that normally would have been too dangerous this late in the year, said club president Greg Bledsoe.

"We've been able to hike places that would be a little more hazardous from avalanches," Bledsoe said.

Though he's eager to try a new pair of skis he purchased this fall, he's not planning any trips to find snow just yet.

"I'm just waiting - as long as we're getting out and doing stuff that's all that really matters," he said.

While Juneau's warm, snow-free November wasn't ideal for the town's hunters, skiers and snowmachiners this year, the weather may prove to be advantageous for them in the long run.

Trail Mix, the nonprofit organization that builds and maintains trails in Juneau, was able to work further into the fall than usual, and residents will have better trails to hike next spring.

"Not having it freeze up with lots of snow allowed us to work until the end of November," said James King, executive director of Trail Mix. Normally the trail-working season ends in October.

The group has been working on the Boy Scout Camp trail, which will be an excellent cross-country ski area when the snow comes, King said. The warmer, snow-free weather also may allow the group to work on the rain forest trail, which was damaged in heavy winds last week, on North Douglas Island.

Hunters, who have had a more difficult time tracking deer this season because the animals have not been forced to lower elevations by snow, also may benefit next year, said Neil Barten, area management biologist for the state Department of Fish and Game.

Deer, which have had more to eat and more space to evade hunters this fall, may be better equipped to survive the winter and produce a bigger deer population for next fall's hunting season, he said.

"The carryover should be good for next fall's hunting season, unless we get a ton of snow between January and March," Barten said.

The Weather Service forecasts dry, cold weather this week followed by a warmer, rainy weekend.

Christine Schmid can be reached at cschmid@juneauempire.com.