If U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola is reelected and/or ranked choice voting survives by a narrow margin, Juneau residents will be able to claim they cast the deciding votes.
Juneau continued its long tradition of voting more liberally than the state as a whole — but with various parts of town also characteristically varying widely in their allegiances — according to unofficial vote tallies by the Alaska Division of Elections as of Wednesday morning.
Republican Donald Trump has a 51%-48% popular vote lead nationwide over Democrat Kamala Harris as of Wednesday. In Alaska — which has picked Republican presidents for the past 60 years — the tally so far favors Trump 55.6%-40.4%. But in Juneau the district largely representing downtown is favoring Harris 67.4%-28.4% and the district representing the Mendenhall Valley also solidly for her at 54.6%-41.1%.
The gap is larger in both districts in the U.S. House race between Democratic incumbent Peltola and Republican challenger Nick Begich III. Begich has an early statewide lead of 49.7%-45.3% with a lot of votes still to be counted in districts favoring Peltola, but the margins in the two districts encompassing Juneau are 72.4%-24.5% (downtown) and 59.9%-35.6% (valley).
But beyond the stereotypical narrative of “Juneau is full of liberals” is a more nuanced collection of insight and quirks about the capital city, plus the small surrounding communities that also are included in the local vote totals. Those votes are from 18 precincts in the two state legislative districts representing the area: District 3 (including the valley, Auke Bay, Lynn Canal, Gustavus, Haines, Skagway and Klukwan) and District 4 (Thane, downtown, Douglas, Lemon Creek, Glacier Valley and near Juneau International Airport).
A key caveat in the results so far is 3,686 of the 8,301 ballots received in District 3 and 3,404 of the 6,788 ballots received in District 4 are early or absentee ballots. That means while they are counted in the districtwide totals, they are not yet sorted into the precinct the voter is registered in.
Trump most popular near airport, least popular downtown
Trump has a majority of votes in only two of Juneau’s 13 precincts: Juneau Airport Area at 54.88% and Mendenhall Glacier at 51.85%. He also has 50.46% in Haines No. 2, the conservative outlier in the five precincts in communities in the northern Southeast Panhandle.
At the bottom end of the scale for the former president is Juneau No. 2 spanning part of down at 15.65%. Harris has her highest Juneau total with 77.83% of votes so far in that precinct. But the real liberal outlier in the region is the village of Klukwan where 9.76% of voters cast their ballots for Green Party candidate Jill Stein — nearly three times the percentage of her second-highest precinct (which in yet another quirk was Haines No. 2 at 3.67%).
Peltola gets 83.5% downtown, Begich gets 12.5% in Klukwan
Klukwan’s mainstream liberal political leanings were more apparent in the U.S. House race, with Peltola getting 77.5% of the vote so far compared to 12.5% for Begich. That’s the lowest for Begich among the two districts that include Juneau, although there is a more lopsided margin in the Juneau No. 2 precinct where Peltola leads 83.5%-13.9%.
Begich doesn’t have a majority in any of the 18 precincts in the two districts. His best overall was in Haines No. 2 at 46.67% which also cast 7.98% of its votes for Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe — while in Juneau the airport precinct cast 45.24% of its votes for Begich and 6.46% of its votes for Howe.
Howe’s best precinct, however, was Klukwan at an even 10%. Meanwhile, New York federal prison inmate Eric Hafner was a nonentity as a Democrat, peaking at 1.31% in the Glacier Valley precinct — and getting zero votes in both Klukwan and Haines No. 2.
Ranked choice voting far more popular locally than statewide
A ballot measure repealing ranked choice voting and open primaries is too close to call with 50.96% in favor and 49.04% opposed statewide as of early Wednesday. But in the two districts spanning Juneau there’s clear-cut support for keeping such voting, with the proposition failing 36.66%-63.34% in District 3 and 25.52%-74.48% in District 4.
The precinct with the highest support for the repeal so far is the Mendenhall Glacier area at 42.24%.
Local legislative delegation wins unopposed with 95+% each
Juneau’s three Democratic state lawmakers — Sen. Jesse Kiehl, and Reps. Sara Hannan and Andi Story — all were easily elected to another term since they were unopposed, but a notable number of people in some neighborhoods made their dissatisfaction known with write-in votes.
Kiehl has 95.94% of the vote so far in District 3 and 97.08% in District 4 — reflecting the latter’s more liberal leanings. Hannan, representing District 4, has 96.61% of the overall vote, but only 91.18% of those casting ballots in the airport precinct.
Similarly, Story has 95.99% of the District 4 vote so far, but 8.46% of the Mendenhall Glacier precinct cast write-in ballots.
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at mark.sabbatini@juneauempire.com or (907) 957-2306.
