State battles are hot; election isn’t just about White House

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Years of losses have left Democrats at historic lows in state legislatures. But now they’re seeking to wrest control of as many as a dozen chambers from Republicans, a key step in gaining more influence in redistricting.

The battle for statehouse control is playing out in more than half the states with tens of millions of dollars of planned political spending before the Nov. 8 general election. Democrats are hoping the turmoil surrounding Donald Trump’s presidential campaign can boost their fortunes in down-ballot races, although Hillary Clinton remains unpopular in many Republican-leaning regions.

“When you go district by district, when you look at where all these races are, we’re in a highly competitive environment,” said Matt Walter, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee.

“A volatile environment” is how it’s described by his counterpart Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee.

With gridlock in Washington, states increasingly are where policies are adopted on major issues such as gun rights, marijuana use, minimum wages and the regulation of businesses in the new economy, such as ride-sharing services and online fantasy sports.

Also at stake is redistricting control. The party that controls legislatures and governorships during the 2020 Census will have the upper hand in redrawing congressional and state legislative districts in those states. Controlling those boundaries can ensure a political advantage for the next decade.

Republicans now control 69 of the 99 state legislative chambers — their most ever. (Nebraska is the only state with just a single legislative chamber.)

That GOP advantage also means more seats to defend.

National Democratic and Republican groups are particularly focused on 27 states where they hope to either flip control of a chamber or cut into the opposing party’s majority with an eye toward greater gains in the future.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says it expects to win control of between eight and 12 new chambers and has highlighted 52 “essential races,” including many in presidential battleground states.

The GOP’s Walter acknowledges Republicans may see a slight overall decline, but he says they still could win several new chambers, including the Kentucky House, the lone Democratic-led chamber in the Southeast. The Republican State Leadership Committee has been running TV ads portraying Democratic Kentucky House Speaker Greg Stumbo as a Clinton ally intent on putting coal miners out of work.

At the top of the target list for Democrats is the Michigan House, where dozens of Republicans elected in the wave of 2010 are now barred by term limits from seeking re-election. Adding to Democratic hopes: Clinton is ahead in the polls there, and Republican Gov. Rick Snyder’s popularity has tanked following his administration’s handling of the lead-tainted water in Flint. Democrats must gain nine seats to reclaim the chamber, meaning they likely need victories in some blue-collar districts where Trump figures to fare better.

Several states with split-party control in their legislatures are being targeted by both parties, including Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico and Washington.

Republicans currently hold a precarious single-seat advantage over Democrats in the Colorado Senate, while Democrats hold just a three-seat lead in the House. One of the most pivotal races is in Denver’s western suburbs, where Republican Sen. Laura Woods faces a rematch against Democrat Rachel Zenzinger, who held the seat in 2014.

Woods says a Democratic-backed political group has targeted her in automated phone calls linking her to Trump. But Woods, a self-described Christian conservative, says she has forgiven Trump for his sexual comments and will not abandon him.

“I think if Donald Trump wins my district, I’m likely to,” Wood said. “And if Hillary Clinton wins my district, my opponent is likely to win.”

Former Attorney General Eric Holder was announced Monday as chairman of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, a newly created alliance of Democratic leaders, unions and progressive groups with a goal of boosting Democrats’ chances in time for the 2021 redistricting.

Republicans made big gains in state capitols in 2010, just in time for the last round of redistricting. During the 2012 elections, Democratic candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives actually received about 1.4 million more votes than their Republican opponents, yet the GOP won a 33-seat House majority, partly because Republican-dominated state legislatures had drawn districts to their favor. Republicans made even more gains in 2014.

More in News

(Juneau Empire file photo)
Aurora forecast through the week of Dec. 22

These forecasts are courtesy of the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ Geophysical Institute… Continue reading

The U.S. Capitol in Washington, Dec. 18, 2024. The Senate passed bipartisan legislation early Saturday that would give full Social Security benefits to a group of public sector retirees who currently receive them at a reduced level, sending the bill to President JOE Biden. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)
Congress OKs full Social Security benefits for public sector retirees, including 15,000 in Alaska

Biden expected to sign bill that eliminates government pension offset from benefits.

Pauline Plumb and Penny Saddler carry vegetables grown by fellow gardeners during the 29th Annual Juneau Community Garden Harvest Fair on Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Empire file photo)
Dunleavy says he plans to reestablish state Department of Agriculture via executive order

Demoted to division status after statehood, governor says revival will improve food production policies.

Alan Steffert, a project engineer for the City and Borough of Juneau, explains alternatives considered when assessing infrastructure improvements including utilities upgrades during a meeting to discuss a proposed fee increase Thursday night at Thunder Mountain Middle School. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Empire)
Hike of more than 60% in water rates, 80% in sewer over next five years proposed by CBJ utilities

Increase needed due to rates not keeping up with inflation, officials say; Assembly will need to OK plan.

Gov. Mike Dunleavy and President-elect Donald Trump (left) will be working as chief executives at opposite ends of the U.S. next year, a face constructed of rocks on Sandy Beach is seen among snow in November (center), and KINY’s prize patrol van (right) flashes its colors outside the station this summer. (Photos, from left to right, from Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s office, Elliot Welch via Juneau Parks and Recreation, and Mark Sabbatini via the Juneau Empire)
Juneau’s 10 strangest news stories of 2024

Governor’s captivating journey to nowhere, woman who won’t leave the beach among those making waves.

Police calls for Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024

This report contains public information from law enforcement and public safety agencies.

The U.S. Capitol on Wednesday. Funding for the federal government will lapse at 8:01 p.m. Alaska time on Friday if no deal is reached. (Kenny Holston/The New York Times)
A federal government shutdown may begin tonight. Here’s what may happen.

TSA will still screen holiday travelers, military will work without paychecks; food stamps may lapse.

The cover image from Gov. Mike Dunleavy’s “Alaska Priorities For Federal Transition” report. (Office of the Governor)
Loch Ness ducks or ‘vampire grebes’? Alaska governor report for Trump comes with AI hallucinations

A ChatGPT-generated image of Alaska included some strange-looking waterfowl.

Bartlett Regional Hospital, along with Juneau’s police and fire departments, are partnering in a new behavioral health crisis response program announced Thursday. (Bartlett Regional Hospital photo)
New local behavioral health crisis program using hospital, fire and police officials debuts

Mobile crisis team of responders forms five months after hospital ends crisis stabilization program.

Most Read