Update 9 p.m.: Donald Trump is likely to win the presidency, according to The New York Times’ Live Presidential Forecast. “He has an advantage in each of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. To win, Harris would need to sweep all three. There is still a lot of vote left, but in the voting so far, Trump is narrowly but discernibly ahead,” the forecast notes.
The forecast gives Trump a 95+% chance of victory.
Original story: North Carolina, a state that Donald Trump narrowly won in 2020, was won again by the former president, the first swing state to be called for either candidate in one of the most consequential presidential elections in modern American history.
The so-called blue wall states — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — remained too close to call, and data pointed to very close and competitive contests. Vice President Kamala Harris would almost certainly need to win all three to become the nation’s first woman elected president.
But with her path to victory narrowing, Trump took a significant step toward making history as the first president in more than 120 years to return to the White House after being ousted four years before.
In Ohio, Bernie Moreno notched a significant Republican win, defeating Sen. Sherrod Brown, a resilient red-state Democrat. Democrats came into the night with a one-seat majority in the Senate, and they have now lost Brown and the retiring Sen. Joe Manchin, I-W.Va., who will be replaced by the state’s Republican governor, Jim Justice.
Although the election is by no means over, Trump was showing strength across the country, winning Texas and Florida easily and defying recent polls, such as one in Iowa, that seemed to show a surge of support for Harris. Republican leaders in Florida were also able to defeat ballot initiatives expanding abortion access and legalizing recreational marijuana, both of which failed to reach the 60% they needed.
Republican-held House and Senate seats that Democrats had hoped would at least be close so far have not been. Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Rick Scott, R-Fla., survived their reelection fights. Still, most of the states that will decide the next president were still far from being decided.
A largely peaceful Election Day was marred by bomb threats that roiled polling places in Democratic regions of Georgia, Arizona and Michigan. Officials said none of the threats appeared to be credible, but at least in Georgia and Arizona, some polling places stayed open later as a result. Election officials in those states attributed at least some of the threats to Russian actors.
The Democrats did score some landmark wins. For the first time in history, the Senate will have two Black women, both Democrats, serving simultaneously: Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester won her Senate contest in Delaware, while Angela Alsobrooks defeated moderate former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland. Sarah McBride, D-Del., was elected the first transgender member of the House.
In the battle for the House, Republicans were holding their own in key races, leaving control up for grabs. But state Sen. John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams, R-N.Y., according to The Associated Press, delivering Democrats the first flipped House seat in the country.
• This article originally appeared in The New York Times.
