The following editorial first appeared in the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner:
The city of Fairbanks grew in 2016, but not enough to reverse the technicality that has Juneau labeled as the state’s second-largest city. Despite deep concerns about the state budget and oil production, Alaska’s population grew as well. It was a year in which the number of state residents largely held steady in the face of deep anxiety by many in the public and private sectors. And a look at the underlying data shows that Alaska and its leaders have reason for hope but also issues to address.
The Fairbanks North Star Borough saw a bump of about 300 residents in 2016, rising to 98,957, according to figures released this week by the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development. That’s a slight step down from the borough’s all-time population peak of 100,671 in 2012. The city of Fairbanks lost about 160 residents in the past year, clocking in at 31,957. That means the city and borough of Juneau will retain the semantic distinction of being the second-biggest city in Alaska, with a population of 32,739. The notion of Juneau being ahead of Fairbanks in population might be amusing to those who have visited both communities — the reason for it is that Fairbanks’ city limits are closely drawn and don’t encompass any of the area’s outlying neighborhoods, while the city limits of Juneau are also its borough boundaries, including not only the city proper but also all of the populated area of Douglas Island and the Mendenhall Valley, making it one of the biggest “cities” by area in the U.S.
Looking forward, state and local population trends can tell us something about what changes are likely to be ahead. Most immediately for the Interior, the arrival of two squadrons of F-35 Joint Strike Fighter jets at Eielson Air Force Base at the end of the decade will bring about 2,000 people to the area, the biggest increase of its kind in more than a decade for the region. On the whole, the state’s population is likely to remain stagnant in the near future, as weak private sector growth and pullbacks in government services keep the state’s economy from meaningfully expanding. That’s not a major concern in and of itself, as the state’s leaders have experience with Alaska’s population at its present size, but there is a trend of which they should be mindful: the aging of the state population.
Alaska’s median age has been trending slowly upward, as more residents retire in-state rather than moving to the Lower 48. Though the state is still comparatively young on the whole, the increase in the share of Alaskans ages 65 and older means that services such as health care, disability services, Pioneers’ Homes and other programs targeting seniors will only become more important as time goes on.
Though Alaska’s population is stable, trends under the surface — growing population in Southcentral, a slow outmigration from villages to cities and other developments — will require the state to be adaptive in providing solutions to serve all its residents, wherever they live and whatever their places in life.
