Crimson Bears need upset for postseason berth

Two things are set in stone when looking at the Southeast Conference playoff picture: Thunder Mountain’s in; Ketchikan’s out.

The future of the Juneau-Douglas and North Pole High School seasons remain in limbo — that is, until tomorrow night.

JDHS (3-3, 1-1 SEC) welcomes TMHS (5-1, 2-0 SEC) to Adair-Kennedy Memorial Field for a 6 p.m. kickoff Saturday.

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It’s going to take a mammoth effort by the Crimson Bears to knock North Pole out of playoff contention.

If JDHS defeats Thunder Mountain on Saturday, they, along with North Pole, with finish with identical conference records at 2-1.

However, because the Falcons defeated the Patriots and the Crimson Bears lost to them, JDHS must win by 15 or more points against TMHS or miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

After a team’s conference record, pre-established metrics are used to determine which team with the same conference record as the others gets bounced from the playoffs.

These include the head-to-head record, record against common opponents and point differential (points scored minus points allowed) between the tied schools.

“We’re really well matched up, so I expect it’s going to be a very close battle again,” JDHS coach Kevin Hamrick said.

It took a goal-line defensive stand in overtime for TMHS to win 10-7 over JDHS in the two teams’ prior contest this season.

A mixture of turnovers and penalties stunted the Falcons’ offense in that Sept. 1 game at TMHS. On the other hand, the JDHS offense struggled to penetrate their opponent’s defense. Senior Erik Frenette and the rest of the defense scored the Falcons’ only touchdown on an interception turned into a touchdown in the first quarter.

“They feel great,” Hamrick said of his team’s chances of winning Saturday. “They knew we came four inches short of beating them last time so they’re confident in their ability. They’re not looking past them, they know it’s not going to be an easy game.”

Ketchikan’s season came ended with a 54-21 Wednesday night home loss to North Pole.

The Patriots played an unusual midweek game due to the relative proximity of Juneau and Ketchikan compared to their home outside Fairbanks. North Pole defeated JDHS last weekend.

• Contact sports reporter Nolin Ainsworth at 523-2272 or nolin.ainsworth@juneauempire.com.